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T he earthquake question comes up in two out of every three transactions that Eileen Bermingham handles.

Bermingham gets specific requests from clients for newer homes built under more stringent building codes, houses that have been retrofitted for earthquakes, or specific neighbourhoods that pose less risk. This unsteady ground was itself the leftover rubble of another disaster, the estimated 7.

Though the earthquake was immense, Szn of the damage was caused by a fire in its aftermath that spread across nearly five square miles of the city, consuming 28, buildings and leaving more than half of the population homeless. The spectre of is both a guide to prepare, and a warning of what could happen again.

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I hear the kind of language they use and it scares me. The house Davis and his wife ended up buying was built inlong before building codes were modernised in the s to account for seismic issues.

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His house is about feet from a liquefaction zone, and though he is pretty confident about its safety, he does wonder how accurately those liquefaction maps are drawn. Ultimately, he says, the choice of where to buy was driven more by the neighborhood than the thought of a future earthquake.

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Even the tech companies who have been swarming into the city are pushing any earthquake concerns into the background. Startups like Square and Pinterest have located their offices in the liquefaction zone that is the South of Market, or SoMa, neighbourhood, as have bigger companies like Yahoo!

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Many other stone and brick buildings in the city have undergone similar retrofits, in which foundations are replaced or steel framing is added. Most of the risk will likely fall on homeowners and renters.

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A report from the San Francisco Public Press found that there could be as many as 58, people living in housing units at major risk of collapse during a large earthquake. The city has a mandatory retrofit program for such buildings, but progress has been slow.

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Most of the reason so few people have earthquake insurance today is that its cost has risen to reflect the larger potential payouts from earthquake damages. Cliff says he sells maybe a dozen policies a year.

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For example, Los Angeles residents woke up to a 4. The California Earthquake Authority has issued about three-quarters of theearthquake insurance policies in California. We've always bounced back. So I think that drive and that hope to recover is there, but those dangers are real.

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Pomeroy, though, makes the case that the more protection people have the better. But I would suggest that there's a cost of being uninsured that outweighs the cost of that insurance policy when that event happens.

And if the USGS is right, that major event has a very high probability of occurring. So why is it that San Franciscans, with all their experience of minor earthquakes and the occasional major one, are willing to take on the risk of living in a city so prone to major devastation?

The problem, he says, is that numbers are abstractions, and we have trouble processing them cognitively. The entire risk language of probability pales in its influence against the more tangible factors. Ropeik argues that one of the central components of risk perception is control and choice.

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Many in San Francisco have made that choice, fully conscious of its inherent risk. Beirut can appear at ease but there's a palpable sense of dread. But the earthquake question is always in the background. Order by newest oldest recommendations.

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